Archive · 2025 – 2026
Liquor Bets is discontinued.
Liquor Bets was a free, points-based prediction market for the spirits and bar industry. Forecasts on M&A, James Beard winners, Spirited Awards, legislation, and the questions the industry actually argues about. It ran for about a year. I have shut it down.
Why
The product worked. The growth loop did not scale to a level that justified keeping the crons, the email sends, and the social distribution running. I would rather put that energy into the projects that are moving.
All predictions and Brier scores are preserved. If you want a copy of your data or your leaderboard history, email me.
What still lives
- The Spirits Wire, my weekly AI-generated industry brief, continues at pod.co/the-spirits-wire.
- The market data and resolved outcomes are archived. Reach out if you need them.
- Public relevance work has moved to my main site.
Read the full case study
The full write-up covers what I built, what it demonstrated, why I killed it, how to bring it back, and what it means for what I ship next.
Working on something in spirits or hospitality?
I still build operating systems, cocktail programs, and content engines for bars, restaurants, and brands. If a piece of Liquor Bets was useful to you and you want a version of it for your own operation, I can build it. If you want to sponsor, license, or acquire the platform itself, that path is open too.